Sorry, things got kinda busy. I'll try to update in installments since the last month or so has been exciting and hectic.
- moved into a new place
- started practicing again
- recorded/produced album in Brooklyn
- gigged in NYC
- went home
- threw a sweet bbq
Ok, I'll be back.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
- What a dumb game.
It's good news, don't worry. I'll stop whining and being a prissy little girl now. Things turned around starting about 3 days ago and have gone well. It's not so much that the beats ended, it's the placement of the beats. I virtually stopped losing all 80/20s once we were down to 4 or less players. Nearly all 70/30s on the bubble and heads-up held up while standard races (66 vs. AQ, etc.) started falling more in my favor. I'm not back to the profit total I was at 5 weeks ago, but at least it's nice to know it's done.
It's also reassuring to know it will happen again. Without a doubt, actually. About a week ago during the swing, I made a comment to a reg while heads-up that I thought I'd just gotten lucky over my first 14000 games and now this was everything readjusting because I was actually not a good player at all. Turns out he has been experiencing a downswing that would make any professional cringe. Now, I'm sure he has flaws and some leaks in his general game (like most people do), but he's certainly not a losing or bad player.
While talking to him a few days ago he showed me some ROI simulations and a ton of graphs that many regs have compiled into a database. It came down to the fact that if you average between 4-5% ROI you are going to experience some MASSIVE downswings. Long-term comparisons of most of the regs indicate that 4-6% is attainable, but if you hold at 6% you're one of the rare fortunate ones (excluding rakeback, obviously). He showed me that it is absolutely possible to run just awful for extended streaks and why (I'll spare the details as I only really grasped about 4 of them). This would explain why there seem to be many temporary regulars in super-turbos. Guys come in, hit the up-side of variance and win. However, the first big downswing hits and they're done. Either they bust out because proper bankroll management isn't followed or they can't handle the game itself. He pointed out that if it wasn't for his "adjusted EV" graph showing him at about 4-5% over 14k games he would've quit looong ago. The guy's not down, but the swift kick of negative variance has hung around for way longer than expected. Over just about 5k games I certainly felt that pain and frustration, but luckily I managed to put a decent amount of volume in to combat it. Yeah, it waned in the last 2 weeks, but a little over a month long downswing isn't awful when coupled with 5k games. Last May I had a terrible month, too, but only played about 1500 games (granted they were different games and limits, but you see the point).
Result of all this frustration - play more games. Math, reasoning, and keeping your head on straight are crucial, but without the volume, none of it will matter. It's coming around at a pretty good time, too. I have a few trips coming up over the next two months and I'm kind of nervous about the playing time dropoff.
My security token finally came in yesterday! Yardle got his about a week ago, but ordered it after me. So, I sent a message to support and they said they'd send it immediately. Maybe the key to improving full tilt's support is to tell them that you requested something a month ago because it came about 5 days after I e-mailed. I know it'd probably be difficult for someone to hack into my account since I'm playing on a mac, but it's a good confidence boost to know my money's protected even better now. I mean, if someone actually did get into that account my life would be in some trouble.
Alright, I'm going to go to work. Yay for the long-term grind.
It's also reassuring to know it will happen again. Without a doubt, actually. About a week ago during the swing, I made a comment to a reg while heads-up that I thought I'd just gotten lucky over my first 14000 games and now this was everything readjusting because I was actually not a good player at all. Turns out he has been experiencing a downswing that would make any professional cringe. Now, I'm sure he has flaws and some leaks in his general game (like most people do), but he's certainly not a losing or bad player.
While talking to him a few days ago he showed me some ROI simulations and a ton of graphs that many regs have compiled into a database. It came down to the fact that if you average between 4-5% ROI you are going to experience some MASSIVE downswings. Long-term comparisons of most of the regs indicate that 4-6% is attainable, but if you hold at 6% you're one of the rare fortunate ones (excluding rakeback, obviously). He showed me that it is absolutely possible to run just awful for extended streaks and why (I'll spare the details as I only really grasped about 4 of them). This would explain why there seem to be many temporary regulars in super-turbos. Guys come in, hit the up-side of variance and win. However, the first big downswing hits and they're done. Either they bust out because proper bankroll management isn't followed or they can't handle the game itself. He pointed out that if it wasn't for his "adjusted EV" graph showing him at about 4-5% over 14k games he would've quit looong ago. The guy's not down, but the swift kick of negative variance has hung around for way longer than expected. Over just about 5k games I certainly felt that pain and frustration, but luckily I managed to put a decent amount of volume in to combat it. Yeah, it waned in the last 2 weeks, but a little over a month long downswing isn't awful when coupled with 5k games. Last May I had a terrible month, too, but only played about 1500 games (granted they were different games and limits, but you see the point).
Result of all this frustration - play more games. Math, reasoning, and keeping your head on straight are crucial, but without the volume, none of it will matter. It's coming around at a pretty good time, too. I have a few trips coming up over the next two months and I'm kind of nervous about the playing time dropoff.
My security token finally came in yesterday! Yardle got his about a week ago, but ordered it after me. So, I sent a message to support and they said they'd send it immediately. Maybe the key to improving full tilt's support is to tell them that you requested something a month ago because it came about 5 days after I e-mailed. I know it'd probably be difficult for someone to hack into my account since I'm playing on a mac, but it's a good confidence boost to know my money's protected even better now. I mean, if someone actually did get into that account my life would be in some trouble.
Alright, I'm going to go to work. Yay for the long-term grind.
Friday, June 11, 2010
- Stop it, emo kid.
I watched several videos on Cardrunners site recently - all on the topic of "brain fail." Essentially, the instructor covered a bunch of concepts about how the human mind reacts to various situations/stress. It's incredibly well put together and was exactly what I needed. Unfortunately, a few videos don't translate into jack squat financially. Maybe long-term, but in the short term I'm still getting my face punch-a-sized.
Honestly, it's beginning to really feel like I'm lying to myself. Like I was just lucky before and the results I'm seeing now are the way it should've been all along. I'm constantly checking and re-checking my bust hands to see if I actually did the correct shove/call AND to see if I didn't completely misread the cards and shove something ridiculous (nope, still shoved JJ and lost to 44...again). I know this is just variance. I know it will turn around. I also know that, just like the last 3 weeks, I again lost 11 of my 28 80/20s. I shouldn't have looked b/c I just get more frustrated seeing those results.
The worst of it, though, is that it's definitely having an effect on my mood. When this started, for probably the first 2 to 3 weeks I could shake it off and no one could really tell how the day had gone. Now I find myself not wanting to do anything except sulk or study more hands and late-game scenarios (ok, that's not entirely true...it just takes a lot longer than it should to get my head right again). My sessions are getting shorter b/c I can't seem to take the frustration. My last session tonight lasted 15 minutes (pathetic city) only because I couldn't handle losing KK to AK on two bubbles and QQ to AQ on the last - with the shorty having no more than 150 chips on any of the 3.
Anyway, I'm going to Orange County for the weekend. Yay. Then I'll come back and play again. Maybe Emo kid will go be emo somewhere else by then.
Honestly, it's beginning to really feel like I'm lying to myself. Like I was just lucky before and the results I'm seeing now are the way it should've been all along. I'm constantly checking and re-checking my bust hands to see if I actually did the correct shove/call AND to see if I didn't completely misread the cards and shove something ridiculous (nope, still shoved JJ and lost to 44...again). I know this is just variance. I know it will turn around. I also know that, just like the last 3 weeks, I again lost 11 of my 28 80/20s. I shouldn't have looked b/c I just get more frustrated seeing those results.
The worst of it, though, is that it's definitely having an effect on my mood. When this started, for probably the first 2 to 3 weeks I could shake it off and no one could really tell how the day had gone. Now I find myself not wanting to do anything except sulk or study more hands and late-game scenarios (ok, that's not entirely true...it just takes a lot longer than it should to get my head right again). My sessions are getting shorter b/c I can't seem to take the frustration. My last session tonight lasted 15 minutes (pathetic city) only because I couldn't handle losing KK to AK on two bubbles and QQ to AQ on the last - with the shorty having no more than 150 chips on any of the 3.
Anyway, I'm going to Orange County for the weekend. Yay. Then I'll come back and play again. Maybe Emo kid will go be emo somewhere else by then.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
- May's over. Yay.
Even though the last 3 and a half weeks of May sucked completely, I still profited plenty and actually improved a great deal. It won't show on the stat sheet, but at some point the math will even out (maybe this month will be a 4k game upswing...). I really hope it does soon, because I'm leaving near the end of the month for a wedding in Missouri and then getting back just in time to move to a new house! Sweeeeeet! Hello trombone. The excitement is palpable.
I'm still pretty disappointed that the swing affected me as much as it did. I mean, I've gone on some ridiculous swings before, but nothing that lasted 5k games and nearly a month (without playing losing poker for some of it). The real frustrating part is that I took a two day break right at the end of the month to get my head straight. While I definitely liked the time off, I missed two bonus cutoffs by the thinnest of margins. My rakeback provider runs a monthly "rake chase" with the top 25 spots getting a cash bonus for how far on the leaderboard you finish. I finished fourth which is good for $425 bonus. Normally, I'd be happy, but I missed 2nd place by less than $100 in rake paid. That means if I'd played 50 more $50 games in the month I would have gotten an $850 bonus. Sure, I could've lost over that last 50 games, but a $400+ jump would've been nice even if I hadn't won much over that last 50. The other bonus came from full tilt's leaderboard system. By placing on the high limit board, you get a % multiplied by your finishing place's average buy-in. So, I played more $50 games this month than anything which means I would get my finish spot times $50 as a bonus. I missed 5th by less than 1k points (don't know how little that is, but probably could've taken as little as 30 games) and finished in 8th instead.
The goal for this month is just to relax and not worry about when this will turn around. I'm super-rolled to play these and have enough in my bank account to cover the move/bills/rent/food/burritos/pizza parties/monkey bars. Oh, I just got my new matrox dualhead2go system set up so my monitors work perfectly with my laptop now! I know that might not seem like a big deal, but I'm excited.
I'm still pretty disappointed that the swing affected me as much as it did. I mean, I've gone on some ridiculous swings before, but nothing that lasted 5k games and nearly a month (without playing losing poker for some of it). The real frustrating part is that I took a two day break right at the end of the month to get my head straight. While I definitely liked the time off, I missed two bonus cutoffs by the thinnest of margins. My rakeback provider runs a monthly "rake chase" with the top 25 spots getting a cash bonus for how far on the leaderboard you finish. I finished fourth which is good for $425 bonus. Normally, I'd be happy, but I missed 2nd place by less than $100 in rake paid. That means if I'd played 50 more $50 games in the month I would have gotten an $850 bonus. Sure, I could've lost over that last 50 games, but a $400+ jump would've been nice even if I hadn't won much over that last 50. The other bonus came from full tilt's leaderboard system. By placing on the high limit board, you get a % multiplied by your finishing place's average buy-in. So, I played more $50 games this month than anything which means I would get my finish spot times $50 as a bonus. I missed 5th by less than 1k points (don't know how little that is, but probably could've taken as little as 30 games) and finished in 8th instead.
The goal for this month is just to relax and not worry about when this will turn around. I'm super-rolled to play these and have enough in my bank account to cover the move/bills/rent/food/burritos/pizza parties/monkey bars. Oh, I just got my new matrox dualhead2go system set up so my monitors work perfectly with my laptop now! I know that might not seem like a big deal, but I'm excited.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
- The breaking point
I'm not sure what qualifies as the point where I kind of flip out after weeks of run bad. My table selection is light years beyond what it was 3 weeks ago, end game shove ranges have improved dramatically (sure, still shoving wide, but doesn't have to be any two 100% - especially at the bubbles with low blinds), and I can snag sharkscope notes on a player faster than I've ever done before. Yet, still I lose. Well, more like break even again and again and again. It's been just about 4000 games and I'm even if rakeback is included.
Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.
70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.
I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.
Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.
70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.
I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
- My head is broken
Started legitimately celebrating only being down $500 today. Genuine excitement. So dumb.
edit: only down $150 on the day by the end of it. I'm seriously giddy. Haven't had a real winning day in almost 2 weeks (outside of 1 day) and this feels amazing. Not even kidding.
edit: only down $150 on the day by the end of it. I'm seriously giddy. Haven't had a real winning day in almost 2 weeks (outside of 1 day) and this feels amazing. Not even kidding.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
- Not easy the 2nd time around either
The first week of the month I made money. Since the 7th I have lost money. It has sucked.
I've experienced this type of variance before, but it was a few months ago while I was still learning the 6-max supers. I'm really not too concerned bankroll-wise, I just hate the loss of confidence. For about the first 8-9 days of the swing it really wasn't all that bad. Running hands/ranges/bubbles was an absolute necessity and I genuinely feel like I've improved because of it. Lots of other regs are experiencing similar swings at the same time, which is somewhat reassuring.
The good things that have come from this include: more attention to heads-up, early game blind-vs-blind shoves, and late game bubble play. The bad things: not knowing how all the "fixes" will actually play out in the long run. I can't put it out of my mind that for about 5k games I was running above average in certain late-game spots (things like shoving too wide from the button on a bubble at a low-ish blind level) and now it's readjusting somewhat (note: I have studied this spot over and over now and am 100% positive this has improved). I also can't discount the fact that my overall aggression in these games definitely allowed me to make as much as I have in just a few months.
No one likes a good bad beat story so I'll spare any major details. However, this last session - and the 3 before it - looked like things were going to turn a little bit and I could possibly break-even for the day. Then 7 games later (and 3 70/30s, 3 80/20s, and 1 1-outer) I was still down. That's gotta be the suckiest part. Constantly thinking it's turning around or something's about to readjust the way the math says it must, but doesn't.
In other news, I'm moving into a new place at the end of June (haven't found it yet) with an old buddy from Kids from Wisconsin and yardle. Should mean more practicing without a mute! Score.
I've experienced this type of variance before, but it was a few months ago while I was still learning the 6-max supers. I'm really not too concerned bankroll-wise, I just hate the loss of confidence. For about the first 8-9 days of the swing it really wasn't all that bad. Running hands/ranges/bubbles was an absolute necessity and I genuinely feel like I've improved because of it. Lots of other regs are experiencing similar swings at the same time, which is somewhat reassuring.
The good things that have come from this include: more attention to heads-up, early game blind-vs-blind shoves, and late game bubble play. The bad things: not knowing how all the "fixes" will actually play out in the long run. I can't put it out of my mind that for about 5k games I was running above average in certain late-game spots (things like shoving too wide from the button on a bubble at a low-ish blind level) and now it's readjusting somewhat (note: I have studied this spot over and over now and am 100% positive this has improved). I also can't discount the fact that my overall aggression in these games definitely allowed me to make as much as I have in just a few months.
No one likes a good bad beat story so I'll spare any major details. However, this last session - and the 3 before it - looked like things were going to turn a little bit and I could possibly break-even for the day. Then 7 games later (and 3 70/30s, 3 80/20s, and 1 1-outer) I was still down. That's gotta be the suckiest part. Constantly thinking it's turning around or something's about to readjust the way the math says it must, but doesn't.
In other news, I'm moving into a new place at the end of June (haven't found it yet) with an old buddy from Kids from Wisconsin and yardle. Should mean more practicing without a mute! Score.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
- Shoves vs. Calls and a little more about the table selectins...
I just saw two games go off at the $50 level with 5 regs and one go off with 6. Sure, two of those regs are definitely better overall players than the other 4, but there is no way anyone in that game is +EV. I know at least two of those guys know better than that, too. I've adjusted my sleep schedule so that I'm up by 7 and playing by 8, thus avoiding a huge amount of regs for most of my day. I got about 300 in today and managed to be fairly reg-less up until the last hour when I could only load a 6 or so before I had to unregister because of all the dumbasses. Oh well, like Yardle told me the other day, with any luck most of them will go on some major swings and either go bust or quit playing these games. Yay!
From about Friday until yesterday I ran badly. Really badly. Races weren't races and dominating hands were crushable almost non-stop. I managed to keep my head on straight for about the first 1000 games of it, but couldn't find any reasoning for the run once it hit Monday night/Tuesday morning. So, I spent about 4 hours yesterday running (and re-running) shove/call ranges. Particularly focused on the regs, but even general spots as well. I know that most of the 1500 game swing was poor luck, but there were many spots that I could've avoided a call or making a shove.
For example:
Full Tilt Poker Game #20805585077: $50 + $2 Sit & Go (Super Turbo) 25/50
Seat 1: me (585)
Seat 4: royalflush1529 (340)
Seat 5: APAT33 (565)
Seat 6: Top Reg (310)
me posts the small blind of 25
royalflush1529 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to me [Ts Qd]
Top Reg raises to 310, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 260 returned to Top Reg
This is a spot that I know 100% of the time I'm ahead of his range. He has approximately 6 blinds on the button (both huge reasons for an any two card shove). For the past couple days, I'm pretty sure I was taking this flip, but it's not worth it. If it was suited, I'd be in the top 25% of hands and probably try to isolate, but since it's not, it's only a top 35% hand and isn't worth half my stack on a race. Spots like this and blind-vs-blind confrontations have been especially painful lately so checking these hands has helped tremendously.
Many regs that I see are still calling me thinking that I'm pushing anything...which I'm absolutely not - at least not in every spot. One crappy reg that I don't mind sitting with refuses to believe that my shoves aren't insanely wide all the time and, for the first time in a few days, I think I won all but 5 or 6 of our all-ins between the two of us (not bad considering we probably had 30+ today and I think I was either ahead or absolutely crushing him around 75%). In the long run, they will surely pay the price and go on a massive swing (just like the one I did or bigger), but probably won't figure it out...at least I hope not.
From about Friday until yesterday I ran badly. Really badly. Races weren't races and dominating hands were crushable almost non-stop. I managed to keep my head on straight for about the first 1000 games of it, but couldn't find any reasoning for the run once it hit Monday night/Tuesday morning. So, I spent about 4 hours yesterday running (and re-running) shove/call ranges. Particularly focused on the regs, but even general spots as well. I know that most of the 1500 game swing was poor luck, but there were many spots that I could've avoided a call or making a shove.
For example:
Full Tilt Poker Game #20805585077: $50 + $2 Sit & Go (Super Turbo) 25/50
Seat 1: me (585)
Seat 4: royalflush1529 (340)
Seat 5: APAT33 (565)
Seat 6: Top Reg (310)
me posts the small blind of 25
royalflush1529 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to me [Ts Qd]
Top Reg raises to 310, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 260 returned to Top Reg
This is a spot that I know 100% of the time I'm ahead of his range. He has approximately 6 blinds on the button (both huge reasons for an any two card shove). For the past couple days, I'm pretty sure I was taking this flip, but it's not worth it. If it was suited, I'd be in the top 25% of hands and probably try to isolate, but since it's not, it's only a top 35% hand and isn't worth half my stack on a race. Spots like this and blind-vs-blind confrontations have been especially painful lately so checking these hands has helped tremendously.
Many regs that I see are still calling me thinking that I'm pushing anything...which I'm absolutely not - at least not in every spot. One crappy reg that I don't mind sitting with refuses to believe that my shoves aren't insanely wide all the time and, for the first time in a few days, I think I won all but 5 or 6 of our all-ins between the two of us (not bad considering we probably had 30+ today and I think I was either ahead or absolutely crushing him around 75%). In the long run, they will surely pay the price and go on a massive swing (just like the one I did or bigger), but probably won't figure it out...at least I hope not.
Monday, May 10, 2010
- Yeah...I'm not gonna do that.
Sorry, peeps (mainly Angie), I'm not going to publish what I typed when flying off the handle at that guy. Some of it was pretty awful. I'll e-mail it to you instead :)
So, after a hot start to the month things have cooled off a ton. Since Friday I haven't been able to get anything going over a fairly substantial game amount and am still pretty stuck. I can't really chalk it up to anything except the frequency of poorly timed beats. Things like losing with AK to A4 don't hurt in the first level or two, but on the bubble or in the money they can start to drive you nuts. Today, for example, I've played about 250 games so far and have over 30 more 3rd places than 1sts and 15 more 2nds than 1sts. You just can't be up anything with those results. I honestly wish I could attribute it to something more than luck, but I can't. Which sucks. Big time. Sucks so bad I'm not even using proper sentences.
The regs are starting to show up a LOT more, too. Some will table select, but most don't (several are losing or break even grinders, so it's not too bad) and all of them seem to think I'm pushing any two cards non-stop (which I'm almost never ever ever pushing any two into them now). Anyway, I'll go back to it now and see if the tide has turned.
So, after a hot start to the month things have cooled off a ton. Since Friday I haven't been able to get anything going over a fairly substantial game amount and am still pretty stuck. I can't really chalk it up to anything except the frequency of poorly timed beats. Things like losing with AK to A4 don't hurt in the first level or two, but on the bubble or in the money they can start to drive you nuts. Today, for example, I've played about 250 games so far and have over 30 more 3rd places than 1sts and 15 more 2nds than 1sts. You just can't be up anything with those results. I honestly wish I could attribute it to something more than luck, but I can't. Which sucks. Big time. Sucks so bad I'm not even using proper sentences.
The regs are starting to show up a LOT more, too. Some will table select, but most don't (several are losing or break even grinders, so it's not too bad) and all of them seem to think I'm pushing any two cards non-stop (which I'm almost never ever ever pushing any two into them now). Anyway, I'll go back to it now and see if the tide has turned.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
- Streaky streaks and table selection
Got my chat banned again. New site. New opponents. New game. Same old me. All of the comments for which I was banned (for only a month - I'll be back. Mark my words) were aimed at one player. It wasn't for bad beats; it wasn't for frustrating results; it was solely for the fact that he refuses to table select.
Table selection (something that to this point I rarely needed to do) is important for games where your edge is already low and regulars show up a fair amount. In these super turbos, due to the speed of the game and the high blinds, my edge is already reduced due to the brief game length. So, if I'm in push/fold end-game mode for the entire sit-n-go and no one at the table has much of a clue how to handle it, I make more money. This should be fairly obvious. When another decent reg is in the game and he knows how to avoid me (and vice-versa), we can still be profitable. However, once another reg (even if he's not all that good) gets in the game, the luck factor really kicks in because there's really no way to avoid wide shoves/calls that all work to increase the variance of the game. I could still be the best player in the game and have virtually no positive equity. No bueno.
So, this idiot reg refuses to make any attempt to avoid other regs and will jump into games where there are already two regs sitting. Thus, the only way to let him know that he's being stupid is to tell him so. Repeatedly. With objectionable language. Bannable objectionable language.
Am I proud of this? Am I happy that I fly off the handle at some of these regs? No, of course not. No one's excited to e-bash others. No one wins in those situations. It's like salting the snail. I'm getting all worked up just thinking about it.
Table selection (something that to this point I rarely needed to do) is important for games where your edge is already low and regulars show up a fair amount. In these super turbos, due to the speed of the game and the high blinds, my edge is already reduced due to the brief game length. So, if I'm in push/fold end-game mode for the entire sit-n-go and no one at the table has much of a clue how to handle it, I make more money. This should be fairly obvious. When another decent reg is in the game and he knows how to avoid me (and vice-versa), we can still be profitable. However, once another reg (even if he's not all that good) gets in the game, the luck factor really kicks in because there's really no way to avoid wide shoves/calls that all work to increase the variance of the game. I could still be the best player in the game and have virtually no positive equity. No bueno.
So, this idiot reg refuses to make any attempt to avoid other regs and will jump into games where there are already two regs sitting. Thus, the only way to let him know that he's being stupid is to tell him so. Repeatedly. With objectionable language. Bannable objectionable language.
Am I proud of this? Am I happy that I fly off the handle at some of these regs? No, of course not. No one's excited to e-bash others. No one wins in those situations. It's like salting the snail. I'm getting all worked up just thinking about it.
Monday, April 12, 2010
- Whine. Whine. Whine.
Basic rant for a few paragraphs - skip if you don't want to hear some complaining.
Why is there such a stigma about all of this? I applied to get an increase on my credit card so I could take care of my taxes in one fell swoop. (note: when first finishing college, sometimes you're not given the option of "paying quarterly for your taxes" since you have no idea what the hell you're going to earn, thus you're jacked once you owe it all at once) Talked to the lady today and she said since I was self-employed (see: musician) that they would need to check over my tax documents. Normally that would be fine except as soon as they see that all of my earnings this year were from "gambling" I'm not going to get it. (note: I filed as a hobbyist instead of professional since I did do some gigs) Thus, I had to cash out half of my online roll to cover my taxes. Result? Panic. Massive panic.
I didn't want to bust down that roll since I've been working so hard to get to the upper limits (where you'll just pull in rakeback like money falling from trees - money doesn't fall from trees, but you get it). Unfortunately, the govt doesn't give a damn. Thus, the last few days when I didn't have a single chance to work and the next several when I'll be in Eau Claire for the jazz festival are absolutely going to kill me. I'm literally contemplating readjusting my sleep schedule again to try to run it back up as fast as possible. God, it's like you take 3 steps forward and something punches you in the face and you're back doing it all over again.
In a nut shell: Govt doesn't want to tax the industry where I make my money which is trying to give them BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO REGULATE IT; govt wants to tax the f out of me so that I either A) stop making money online or B) find a more respectable career (read: I'm gonna go on f'ing unemployment/welfare or whatever, you dumbasses); I'm trying to pay my taxes and not kill my bankroll so that I can afford to pay quarterly for next year, but am finding this incredibly difficult since people just assume I'm a massive degenerate; I'm being forced to write horribly constructed, grammatically improper sentences to try to express outrage. I'm screwed.
Rant's over. Start reading here if you skipped down.
Poker's been fine lately. I'm getting closer to the $/gm I was expecting (up until the fiasco that is tax season...see above) and the games are still very selectably soft. I'm leaving tomorrow for Minneapolis and heading to Duluth for a couple days then going to the EC Jazz Fest for the weekend. It'll be cool to adjudicate and actually do some music stuff again. The only truly sucky thing is that I'm not going to get practically any work in - which, considering my current situation, is making me increasingly nervous.
Oh, I've started getting some work with a salsa band in town, too. We played a gig last Sunday that had more security than I'd ever seen before. I think I got patted down by 2 security guards and the Army searched my gig bag (ok, not really, but it was crazy in there).
I'm rambling and can't think straight anymore.
Why is there such a stigma about all of this? I applied to get an increase on my credit card so I could take care of my taxes in one fell swoop. (note: when first finishing college, sometimes you're not given the option of "paying quarterly for your taxes" since you have no idea what the hell you're going to earn, thus you're jacked once you owe it all at once) Talked to the lady today and she said since I was self-employed (see: musician) that they would need to check over my tax documents. Normally that would be fine except as soon as they see that all of my earnings this year were from "gambling" I'm not going to get it. (note: I filed as a hobbyist instead of professional since I did do some gigs) Thus, I had to cash out half of my online roll to cover my taxes. Result? Panic. Massive panic.
I didn't want to bust down that roll since I've been working so hard to get to the upper limits (where you'll just pull in rakeback like money falling from trees - money doesn't fall from trees, but you get it). Unfortunately, the govt doesn't give a damn. Thus, the last few days when I didn't have a single chance to work and the next several when I'll be in Eau Claire for the jazz festival are absolutely going to kill me. I'm literally contemplating readjusting my sleep schedule again to try to run it back up as fast as possible. God, it's like you take 3 steps forward and something punches you in the face and you're back doing it all over again.
In a nut shell: Govt doesn't want to tax the industry where I make my money which is trying to give them BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO REGULATE IT; govt wants to tax the f out of me so that I either A) stop making money online or B) find a more respectable career (read: I'm gonna go on f'ing unemployment/welfare or whatever, you dumbasses); I'm trying to pay my taxes and not kill my bankroll so that I can afford to pay quarterly for next year, but am finding this incredibly difficult since people just assume I'm a massive degenerate; I'm being forced to write horribly constructed, grammatically improper sentences to try to express outrage. I'm screwed.
Rant's over. Start reading here if you skipped down.
Poker's been fine lately. I'm getting closer to the $/gm I was expecting (up until the fiasco that is tax season...see above) and the games are still very selectably soft. I'm leaving tomorrow for Minneapolis and heading to Duluth for a couple days then going to the EC Jazz Fest for the weekend. It'll be cool to adjudicate and actually do some music stuff again. The only truly sucky thing is that I'm not going to get practically any work in - which, considering my current situation, is making me increasingly nervous.
Oh, I've started getting some work with a salsa band in town, too. We played a gig last Sunday that had more security than I'd ever seen before. I think I got patted down by 2 security guards and the Army searched my gig bag (ok, not really, but it was crazy in there).
I'm rambling and can't think straight anymore.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
- Beating frustration
So, I've gotten a solid amount of volume over the past several weeks and made pretty much nothing except rakeback. Every day that I play more then 30 games (which has been everyday except 2) it's some combination of up several hundred, down several hundred. Not to belabor a sob story, but I've already had 7 $800+ downswings this month. Psychologically I'm stronger than ever, but the constant thought of the next 30-50 game bad stretch is getting old. Sitting and playing for 5-7 hours per day is all well and good if you have some kind of idea what your expected profit is going to be. Unfortunately, as of right now, I have absolutely no clue what I'm earning as an hourly.
I've been running more and more hands and I'm pretty sure that my B-game is still better than 90% of my opponents' A-game. Eventually, I'm going to run well for 3-5 days and make my entire months profit (note: the term "run well" implies that 80/20s [i.e. 99 vs. 55] will hold 70% of the time and 70/30s [i.e. AQ vs. A7] will hold 60% of the time on bubbles). The only silver lining of all of this continuous volume is that I stand a good chance of making an extra rakeback bonus at the end of this month. Yay volume.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
- Feb's almost over
To the few that read this -
Hi. The games are still soft. The players in general have no clue what they're doing. The swings are absolutely insane. I loves it. That is all.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
- Taxes = suckage
College was great. Didn't really have to pay squat on taxes. Jobs that can cover 1/2 of your taxes are great. I don't have one of those. I need to play more games than I've ever played in my life this next month if I'm going to have enough to cover the amount the Fed has to have. Odd side note: I find it funny that even the gov't is doing everything it can to stop me from making money at a skill game they still want a huge cut of my income. Here's a thought - regulate it. Make your money from it, too. That way, more people come back to the games I play and we're both happy. Gov't and Fatty can both be happy together.
In other news, I just started listening to Randy Pingrey's trombone blog (google it, people) and it's got tons of great sound clips from his gigs and personal recordings. Nostalgia aside, I really miss that guy.
Oh and one last thing - some dude accused me of being a bot today. "Bots" are programs set up to play a solid push/fold strategy and basically allow the person that designed it to make money without doing anything. I don't know who the guys was or why he assumed I was a bot (to my knowledge we'd never played against each other before, but I could be wrong), but it was kind of funny.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
- Comin' at you with crazy fists!
Good news! All that sucking over the last 400-500 games has caused a very nice leak to pop up - light shoving went bye-bye. That is to say, that I was allowing myself to get waaaay too close to blinding off (really easy to do if with only a 10 blind starting stack) and not shoving nearly wide enough in late position in mid-blind levels. Was kind of getting tired of just blaming the bad beats (of which there have been many) and read a few late-game shove articles and tried to figure out what was going on. It's been tough because normally I could check the majority of my plays in an ICM calculator, but since I don't have Windows on this Mac I can't run any of the programs. Boo hoo.
Gonna really plug for the rest of the month to try to turn it around. With some luck I might have enough $ to purchase the Windows software. Really didn't want to pay full price, so if someone knows of a good way to skirt it w/o actually stealing, I'm all ears.
Friday, January 22, 2010
- These are still fun!
Hey yo -
The hyper-turbos are still going well. Well, not financially so to speak, but they're a welcome change to last year's grind. I really need to get some Windows running on my Mac so that I can start running hands in SngWiz (ICM program) and check my shove/calls.
The variance is certainly a kick in the chops, but it's a lot easier to stomach knowing you have to really run bad to lose your shirt. I mean, I'm not the greatest player to ever play these, but if I wasn't having so many key bubble hands get cracked for the last few days I would be at least break-even. The average players (and regs) are just so weak it's awesome. Plus, I can hammer out about 100 games in 4 hours or so. With any luck, I can run 2-3 hour sessions and shoot for 150 per day...that way I can (random aside - I've got Diana Krall's rendition of Ellington's "I'm an Errand Girl for Rhythm" playing and it's distracting the hell out of me) keep up the grind without as much as variance as year's past (I hope).
Ok, that's all.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Two posts in a week?
Hi. I like Trader Joe's. Just sayin.
An open letter to the $28 super-turbo regs on full tilt:
Hi guys,
If you're all playing strictly for rakeback, congratulations on getting a bit more volume than me. We're all impressed with the fact that you can eke out a 3-5% profit. Here's a quick tip from someone that hopes to make a bit more than that per game - play a few less tables and avoid sitting with every other motherflippin' reg at the level. Now I'm not talking drop down to less than 8 tables, but something more reasonable than 20 at a time should help. Also, think about NOT signing up for a table that has 4 regs (and only 4 regs) in the lobby. I mean, you're just pissing equity to each other.
On second thought, do what you want. If I compile enough stupid stuff from all of you, I'll just become a contributor to Yard's new blog involving all the stupid crap reg's do.
Weeee.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
January already?
Hi. You don't read this blog for the consistent updates. You don't read this blog because it's even the slightest bit interesting. You don't read this blog because you want to stay "in touch" or something. You read the blog because potatoes are cool.
With that said, let's move to the new year.
I got pretty burnt out on the whole 180 man grind thing toward the end of the year. It wasn't like I suffered a huge massive downswing or anything (it was pretty small, really). I just kind of got tired of getting so deep consistently and following it with a blunt smack upside the head of crap variance. What can you do to counteract that? Would you answer it by switching to a game with even more variance? Why not!
I'm playing on full tilt instead of pokerstars because they've got these sweet super-turbo sngs. You start with 300 chips (10 blinds) and 9 players. Bad ass. People fly out of them so fast it's crazy. Most of the low limit guys have no clue about shove/calling ranges so it's just a game of analyzing general shove spots w/ 5-10 blinds most of the time. Plus, it's easy to squeak into the money if you're really short (most guys just think it's worth their time to poke that KTo into the pot after the big stack has already pushed and the shorty has 50 chips. sweet action jackson)
I'll try to update as the volume increases, but right now I'm only playing 4 tables at a time and reloading (average around 16-18 tables/hr). With the rakeback kicked in, I should make somewhere around $2/gm at the $28s and more as the roll increases. I figure if I can slog through 2k games this month, I should be grinding 45s exclusively by Feb. Let's hope, at least.
In other news, the holidays were freaking amazing. I was home for a week and a half (with a lot of snow), had a 3 night gig (about damn time I got some more trombone work), and enjoyed seeing the family. My girlfriend bought us tickets to a St. Louis Blues hockey game in St. Louis just before New Years and I got to go to another Blues game here in LA just last night. New Years in StL was pretty sweet, too. Oh, and I worked the World Series of Beer Pong tourney in Vegas again this year. We worked a lot more hours this year, but it was a complete blast (and I ended up chopping the $150 Caesar's nightly for about $1300 with my buddy Brian).
Anyway, thank God the holidays are over. As fun as they were, I'm a total fatty again. Let's work on that...I hear they have this new Taco Bell diet.
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