Wednesday, May 26, 2010

- The breaking point

I'm not sure what qualifies as the point where I kind of flip out after weeks of run bad. My table selection is light years beyond what it was 3 weeks ago, end game shove ranges have improved dramatically (sure, still shoving wide, but doesn't have to be any two 100% - especially at the bubbles with low blinds), and I can snag sharkscope notes on a player faster than I've ever done before. Yet, still I lose. Well, more like break even again and again and again. It's been just about 4000 games and I'm even if rakeback is included.

Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.

70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.

I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.

3 comments:

Ryan and Max's Mama said...

While I realize this is probably a suggestion that is rather difficult, due to the bad, but maybe a break is in order? Maybe? Clear the head and then get back in the game?

Colin said...

yeah, that's actually a very good suggestion. I've taken some "light" days where I'll only play for an hour or so, but a 3-4 day break would be fantastic. The only downside is that it does, more or less, cost me money to take time off.

I definitely will be taking 3 or 4 weeks off somewhere this summer, but maybe a day this weekend would help. Yay!

Unknown said...

So much comes to mind, but I'll spare us all and just leave some cliffs.


- I'm genuinely sorry for giving you so much shit at the tables.
- Prior to finding this I actually despised you.
- Sorry about that. Hope there's no hard feelings, considering how tilting this game can be and how nasty the swings hit.
- I'm sure you understand, but if you don't put yourself in my shoes and take your recent stretch then multiply it by 4.
- GL and hope everything turns around for you.
- Some eye candy to make you feel better about your situation.

http://yfrog.com/5d20kep