I just saw two games go off at the $50 level with 5 regs and one go off with 6. Sure, two of those regs are definitely better overall players than the other 4, but there is no way anyone in that game is +EV. I know at least two of those guys know better than that, too. I've adjusted my sleep schedule so that I'm up by 7 and playing by 8, thus avoiding a huge amount of regs for most of my day. I got about 300 in today and managed to be fairly reg-less up until the last hour when I could only load a 6 or so before I had to unregister because of all the dumbasses. Oh well, like Yardle told me the other day, with any luck most of them will go on some major swings and either go bust or quit playing these games. Yay!
From about Friday until yesterday I ran badly. Really badly. Races weren't races and dominating hands were crushable almost non-stop. I managed to keep my head on straight for about the first 1000 games of it, but couldn't find any reasoning for the run once it hit Monday night/Tuesday morning. So, I spent about 4 hours yesterday running (and re-running) shove/call ranges. Particularly focused on the regs, but even general spots as well. I know that most of the 1500 game swing was poor luck, but there were many spots that I could've avoided a call or making a shove.
For example:
Full Tilt Poker Game #20805585077: $50 + $2 Sit & Go (Super Turbo) 25/50
Seat 1: me (585)
Seat 4: royalflush1529 (340)
Seat 5: APAT33 (565)
Seat 6: Top Reg (310)
me posts the small blind of 25
royalflush1529 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to me [Ts Qd]
Top Reg raises to 310, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 260 returned to Top Reg
This is a spot that I know 100% of the time I'm ahead of his range. He has approximately 6 blinds on the button (both huge reasons for an any two card shove). For the past couple days, I'm pretty sure I was taking this flip, but it's not worth it. If it was suited, I'd be in the top 25% of hands and probably try to isolate, but since it's not, it's only a top 35% hand and isn't worth half my stack on a race. Spots like this and blind-vs-blind confrontations have been especially painful lately so checking these hands has helped tremendously.
Many regs that I see are still calling me thinking that I'm pushing anything...which I'm absolutely not - at least not in every spot. One crappy reg that I don't mind sitting with refuses to believe that my shoves aren't insanely wide all the time and, for the first time in a few days, I think I won all but 5 or 6 of our all-ins between the two of us (not bad considering we probably had 30+ today and I think I was either ahead or absolutely crushing him around 75%). In the long run, they will surely pay the price and go on a massive swing (just like the one I did or bigger), but probably won't figure it out...at least I hope not.
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