- The breaking point

I'm not sure what qualifies as the point where I kind of flip out after weeks of run bad. My table selection is light years beyond what it was 3 weeks ago, end game shove ranges have improved dramatically (sure, still shoving wide, but doesn't have to be any two 100% - especially at the bubbles with low blinds), and I can snag sharkscope notes on a player faster than I've ever done before. Yet, still I lose. Well, more like break even again and again and again. It's been just about 4000 games and I'm even if rakeback is included.

Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.

70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.

I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.

- My head is broken

Started legitimately celebrating only being down $500 today. Genuine excitement. So dumb.


edit: only down $150 on the day by the end of it. I'm seriously giddy. Haven't had a real winning day in almost 2 weeks (outside of 1 day) and this feels amazing. Not even kidding.

- Not easy the 2nd time around either

The first week of the month I made money. Since the 7th I have lost money. It has sucked.

I've experienced this type of variance before, but it was a few months ago while I was still learning the 6-max supers. I'm really not too concerned bankroll-wise, I just hate the loss of confidence. For about the first 8-9 days of the swing it really wasn't all that bad. Running hands/ranges/bubbles was an absolute necessity and I genuinely feel like I've improved because of it. Lots of other regs are experiencing similar swings at the same time, which is somewhat reassuring.

The good things that have come from this include: more attention to heads-up, early game blind-vs-blind shoves, and late game bubble play. The bad things: not knowing how all the "fixes" will actually play out in the long run. I can't put it out of my mind that for about 5k games I was running above average in certain late-game spots (things like shoving too wide from the button on a bubble at a low-ish blind level) and now it's readjusting somewhat (note: I have studied this spot over and over now and am 100% positive this has improved). I also can't discount the fact that my overall aggression in these games definitely allowed me to make as much as I have in just a few months.

No one likes a good bad beat story so I'll spare any major details. However, this last session - and the 3 before it - looked like things were going to turn a little bit and I could possibly break-even for the day. Then 7 games later (and 3 70/30s, 3 80/20s, and 1 1-outer) I was still down. That's gotta be the suckiest part. Constantly thinking it's turning around or something's about to readjust the way the math says it must, but doesn't.

In other news, I'm moving into a new place at the end of June (haven't found it yet) with an old buddy from Kids from Wisconsin and yardle. Should mean more practicing without a mute! Score.

- Shoves vs. Calls and a little more about the table selectins...

I just saw two games go off at the $50 level with 5 regs and one go off with 6. Sure, two of those regs are definitely better overall players than the other 4, but there is no way anyone in that game is +EV. I know at least two of those guys know better than that, too. I've adjusted my sleep schedule so that I'm up by 7 and playing by 8, thus avoiding a huge amount of regs for most of my day. I got about 300 in today and managed to be fairly reg-less up until the last hour when I could only load a 6 or so before I had to unregister because of all the dumbasses. Oh well, like Yardle told me the other day, with any luck most of them will go on some major swings and either go bust or quit playing these games. Yay!

From about Friday until yesterday I ran badly. Really badly. Races weren't races and dominating hands were crushable almost non-stop. I managed to keep my head on straight for about the first 1000 games of it, but couldn't find any reasoning for the run once it hit Monday night/Tuesday morning. So, I spent about 4 hours yesterday running (and re-running) shove/call ranges. Particularly focused on the regs, but even general spots as well. I know that most of the 1500 game swing was poor luck, but there were many spots that I could've avoided a call or making a shove.

For example:
Full Tilt Poker Game #20805585077: $50 + $2 Sit & Go (Super Turbo) 25/50
Seat 1: me (585)
Seat 4: royalflush1529 (340)
Seat 5: APAT33 (565)
Seat 6: Top Reg (310)
me posts the small blind of 25
royalflush1529 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to me [Ts Qd]
Top Reg raises to 310, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 260 returned to Top Reg

This is a spot that I know 100% of the time I'm ahead of his range. He has approximately 6 blinds on the button (both huge reasons for an any two card shove). For the past couple days, I'm pretty sure I was taking this flip, but it's not worth it. If it was suited, I'd be in the top 25% of hands and probably try to isolate, but since it's not, it's only a top 35% hand and isn't worth half my stack on a race. Spots like this and blind-vs-blind confrontations have been especially painful lately so checking these hands has helped tremendously.

Many regs that I see are still calling me thinking that I'm pushing anything...which I'm absolutely not - at least not in every spot. One crappy reg that I don't mind sitting with refuses to believe that my shoves aren't insanely wide all the time and, for the first time in a few days, I think I won all but 5 or 6 of our all-ins between the two of us (not bad considering we probably had 30+ today and I think I was either ahead or absolutely crushing him around 75%). In the long run, they will surely pay the price and go on a massive swing (just like the one I did or bigger), but probably won't figure it out...at least I hope not.

- Yeah...I'm not gonna do that.

Sorry, peeps (mainly Angie), I'm not going to publish what I typed when flying off the handle at that guy. Some of it was pretty awful. I'll e-mail it to you instead :)

So, after a hot start to the month things have cooled off a ton. Since Friday I haven't been able to get anything going over a fairly substantial game amount and am still pretty stuck. I can't really chalk it up to anything except the frequency of poorly timed beats. Things like losing with AK to A4 don't hurt in the first level or two, but on the bubble or in the money they can start to drive you nuts. Today, for example, I've played about 250 games so far and have over 30 more 3rd places than 1sts and 15 more 2nds than 1sts. You just can't be up anything with those results. I honestly wish I could attribute it to something more than luck, but I can't. Which sucks. Big time. Sucks so bad I'm not even using proper sentences.

The regs are starting to show up a LOT more, too. Some will table select, but most don't (several are losing or break even grinders, so it's not too bad) and all of them seem to think I'm pushing any two cards non-stop (which I'm almost never ever ever pushing any two into them now). Anyway, I'll go back to it now and see if the tide has turned.

- Streaky streaks and table selection

Got my chat banned again. New site. New opponents. New game. Same old me. All of the comments for which I was banned (for only a month - I'll be back. Mark my words) were aimed at one player. It wasn't for bad beats; it wasn't for frustrating results; it was solely for the fact that he refuses to table select.

Table selection (something that to this point I rarely needed to do) is important for games where your edge is already low and regulars show up a fair amount. In these super turbos, due to the speed of the game and the high blinds, my edge is already reduced due to the brief game length. So, if I'm in push/fold end-game mode for the entire sit-n-go and no one at the table has much of a clue how to handle it, I make more money. This should be fairly obvious. When another decent reg is in the game and he knows how to avoid me (and vice-versa), we can still be profitable. However, once another reg (even if he's not all that good) gets in the game, the luck factor really kicks in because there's really no way to avoid wide shoves/calls that all work to increase the variance of the game. I could still be the best player in the game and have virtually no positive equity. No bueno.

So, this idiot reg refuses to make any attempt to avoid other regs and will jump into games where there are already two regs sitting. Thus, the only way to let him know that he's being stupid is to tell him so. Repeatedly. With objectionable language. Bannable objectionable language.

Am I proud of this? Am I happy that I fly off the handle at some of these regs? No, of course not. No one's excited to e-bash others. No one wins in those situations. It's like salting the snail. I'm getting all worked up just thinking about it.