Sorry, things got kinda busy. I'll try to update in installments since the last month or so has been exciting and hectic.
- moved into a new place
- started practicing again
- recorded/produced album in Brooklyn
- gigged in NYC
- went home
- threw a sweet bbq
Ok, I'll be back.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
- What a dumb game.
It's good news, don't worry. I'll stop whining and being a prissy little girl now. Things turned around starting about 3 days ago and have gone well. It's not so much that the beats ended, it's the placement of the beats. I virtually stopped losing all 80/20s once we were down to 4 or less players. Nearly all 70/30s on the bubble and heads-up held up while standard races (66 vs. AQ, etc.) started falling more in my favor. I'm not back to the profit total I was at 5 weeks ago, but at least it's nice to know it's done.
It's also reassuring to know it will happen again. Without a doubt, actually. About a week ago during the swing, I made a comment to a reg while heads-up that I thought I'd just gotten lucky over my first 14000 games and now this was everything readjusting because I was actually not a good player at all. Turns out he has been experiencing a downswing that would make any professional cringe. Now, I'm sure he has flaws and some leaks in his general game (like most people do), but he's certainly not a losing or bad player.
While talking to him a few days ago he showed me some ROI simulations and a ton of graphs that many regs have compiled into a database. It came down to the fact that if you average between 4-5% ROI you are going to experience some MASSIVE downswings. Long-term comparisons of most of the regs indicate that 4-6% is attainable, but if you hold at 6% you're one of the rare fortunate ones (excluding rakeback, obviously). He showed me that it is absolutely possible to run just awful for extended streaks and why (I'll spare the details as I only really grasped about 4 of them). This would explain why there seem to be many temporary regulars in super-turbos. Guys come in, hit the up-side of variance and win. However, the first big downswing hits and they're done. Either they bust out because proper bankroll management isn't followed or they can't handle the game itself. He pointed out that if it wasn't for his "adjusted EV" graph showing him at about 4-5% over 14k games he would've quit looong ago. The guy's not down, but the swift kick of negative variance has hung around for way longer than expected. Over just about 5k games I certainly felt that pain and frustration, but luckily I managed to put a decent amount of volume in to combat it. Yeah, it waned in the last 2 weeks, but a little over a month long downswing isn't awful when coupled with 5k games. Last May I had a terrible month, too, but only played about 1500 games (granted they were different games and limits, but you see the point).
Result of all this frustration - play more games. Math, reasoning, and keeping your head on straight are crucial, but without the volume, none of it will matter. It's coming around at a pretty good time, too. I have a few trips coming up over the next two months and I'm kind of nervous about the playing time dropoff.
My security token finally came in yesterday! Yardle got his about a week ago, but ordered it after me. So, I sent a message to support and they said they'd send it immediately. Maybe the key to improving full tilt's support is to tell them that you requested something a month ago because it came about 5 days after I e-mailed. I know it'd probably be difficult for someone to hack into my account since I'm playing on a mac, but it's a good confidence boost to know my money's protected even better now. I mean, if someone actually did get into that account my life would be in some trouble.
Alright, I'm going to go to work. Yay for the long-term grind.
It's also reassuring to know it will happen again. Without a doubt, actually. About a week ago during the swing, I made a comment to a reg while heads-up that I thought I'd just gotten lucky over my first 14000 games and now this was everything readjusting because I was actually not a good player at all. Turns out he has been experiencing a downswing that would make any professional cringe. Now, I'm sure he has flaws and some leaks in his general game (like most people do), but he's certainly not a losing or bad player.
While talking to him a few days ago he showed me some ROI simulations and a ton of graphs that many regs have compiled into a database. It came down to the fact that if you average between 4-5% ROI you are going to experience some MASSIVE downswings. Long-term comparisons of most of the regs indicate that 4-6% is attainable, but if you hold at 6% you're one of the rare fortunate ones (excluding rakeback, obviously). He showed me that it is absolutely possible to run just awful for extended streaks and why (I'll spare the details as I only really grasped about 4 of them). This would explain why there seem to be many temporary regulars in super-turbos. Guys come in, hit the up-side of variance and win. However, the first big downswing hits and they're done. Either they bust out because proper bankroll management isn't followed or they can't handle the game itself. He pointed out that if it wasn't for his "adjusted EV" graph showing him at about 4-5% over 14k games he would've quit looong ago. The guy's not down, but the swift kick of negative variance has hung around for way longer than expected. Over just about 5k games I certainly felt that pain and frustration, but luckily I managed to put a decent amount of volume in to combat it. Yeah, it waned in the last 2 weeks, but a little over a month long downswing isn't awful when coupled with 5k games. Last May I had a terrible month, too, but only played about 1500 games (granted they were different games and limits, but you see the point).
Result of all this frustration - play more games. Math, reasoning, and keeping your head on straight are crucial, but without the volume, none of it will matter. It's coming around at a pretty good time, too. I have a few trips coming up over the next two months and I'm kind of nervous about the playing time dropoff.
My security token finally came in yesterday! Yardle got his about a week ago, but ordered it after me. So, I sent a message to support and they said they'd send it immediately. Maybe the key to improving full tilt's support is to tell them that you requested something a month ago because it came about 5 days after I e-mailed. I know it'd probably be difficult for someone to hack into my account since I'm playing on a mac, but it's a good confidence boost to know my money's protected even better now. I mean, if someone actually did get into that account my life would be in some trouble.
Alright, I'm going to go to work. Yay for the long-term grind.
Friday, June 11, 2010
- Stop it, emo kid.
I watched several videos on Cardrunners site recently - all on the topic of "brain fail." Essentially, the instructor covered a bunch of concepts about how the human mind reacts to various situations/stress. It's incredibly well put together and was exactly what I needed. Unfortunately, a few videos don't translate into jack squat financially. Maybe long-term, but in the short term I'm still getting my face punch-a-sized.
Honestly, it's beginning to really feel like I'm lying to myself. Like I was just lucky before and the results I'm seeing now are the way it should've been all along. I'm constantly checking and re-checking my bust hands to see if I actually did the correct shove/call AND to see if I didn't completely misread the cards and shove something ridiculous (nope, still shoved JJ and lost to 44...again). I know this is just variance. I know it will turn around. I also know that, just like the last 3 weeks, I again lost 11 of my 28 80/20s. I shouldn't have looked b/c I just get more frustrated seeing those results.
The worst of it, though, is that it's definitely having an effect on my mood. When this started, for probably the first 2 to 3 weeks I could shake it off and no one could really tell how the day had gone. Now I find myself not wanting to do anything except sulk or study more hands and late-game scenarios (ok, that's not entirely true...it just takes a lot longer than it should to get my head right again). My sessions are getting shorter b/c I can't seem to take the frustration. My last session tonight lasted 15 minutes (pathetic city) only because I couldn't handle losing KK to AK on two bubbles and QQ to AQ on the last - with the shorty having no more than 150 chips on any of the 3.
Anyway, I'm going to Orange County for the weekend. Yay. Then I'll come back and play again. Maybe Emo kid will go be emo somewhere else by then.
Honestly, it's beginning to really feel like I'm lying to myself. Like I was just lucky before and the results I'm seeing now are the way it should've been all along. I'm constantly checking and re-checking my bust hands to see if I actually did the correct shove/call AND to see if I didn't completely misread the cards and shove something ridiculous (nope, still shoved JJ and lost to 44...again). I know this is just variance. I know it will turn around. I also know that, just like the last 3 weeks, I again lost 11 of my 28 80/20s. I shouldn't have looked b/c I just get more frustrated seeing those results.
The worst of it, though, is that it's definitely having an effect on my mood. When this started, for probably the first 2 to 3 weeks I could shake it off and no one could really tell how the day had gone. Now I find myself not wanting to do anything except sulk or study more hands and late-game scenarios (ok, that's not entirely true...it just takes a lot longer than it should to get my head right again). My sessions are getting shorter b/c I can't seem to take the frustration. My last session tonight lasted 15 minutes (pathetic city) only because I couldn't handle losing KK to AK on two bubbles and QQ to AQ on the last - with the shorty having no more than 150 chips on any of the 3.
Anyway, I'm going to Orange County for the weekend. Yay. Then I'll come back and play again. Maybe Emo kid will go be emo somewhere else by then.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
- May's over. Yay.
Even though the last 3 and a half weeks of May sucked completely, I still profited plenty and actually improved a great deal. It won't show on the stat sheet, but at some point the math will even out (maybe this month will be a 4k game upswing...). I really hope it does soon, because I'm leaving near the end of the month for a wedding in Missouri and then getting back just in time to move to a new house! Sweeeeeet! Hello trombone. The excitement is palpable.
I'm still pretty disappointed that the swing affected me as much as it did. I mean, I've gone on some ridiculous swings before, but nothing that lasted 5k games and nearly a month (without playing losing poker for some of it). The real frustrating part is that I took a two day break right at the end of the month to get my head straight. While I definitely liked the time off, I missed two bonus cutoffs by the thinnest of margins. My rakeback provider runs a monthly "rake chase" with the top 25 spots getting a cash bonus for how far on the leaderboard you finish. I finished fourth which is good for $425 bonus. Normally, I'd be happy, but I missed 2nd place by less than $100 in rake paid. That means if I'd played 50 more $50 games in the month I would have gotten an $850 bonus. Sure, I could've lost over that last 50 games, but a $400+ jump would've been nice even if I hadn't won much over that last 50. The other bonus came from full tilt's leaderboard system. By placing on the high limit board, you get a % multiplied by your finishing place's average buy-in. So, I played more $50 games this month than anything which means I would get my finish spot times $50 as a bonus. I missed 5th by less than 1k points (don't know how little that is, but probably could've taken as little as 30 games) and finished in 8th instead.
The goal for this month is just to relax and not worry about when this will turn around. I'm super-rolled to play these and have enough in my bank account to cover the move/bills/rent/food/burritos/pizza parties/monkey bars. Oh, I just got my new matrox dualhead2go system set up so my monitors work perfectly with my laptop now! I know that might not seem like a big deal, but I'm excited.
I'm still pretty disappointed that the swing affected me as much as it did. I mean, I've gone on some ridiculous swings before, but nothing that lasted 5k games and nearly a month (without playing losing poker for some of it). The real frustrating part is that I took a two day break right at the end of the month to get my head straight. While I definitely liked the time off, I missed two bonus cutoffs by the thinnest of margins. My rakeback provider runs a monthly "rake chase" with the top 25 spots getting a cash bonus for how far on the leaderboard you finish. I finished fourth which is good for $425 bonus. Normally, I'd be happy, but I missed 2nd place by less than $100 in rake paid. That means if I'd played 50 more $50 games in the month I would have gotten an $850 bonus. Sure, I could've lost over that last 50 games, but a $400+ jump would've been nice even if I hadn't won much over that last 50. The other bonus came from full tilt's leaderboard system. By placing on the high limit board, you get a % multiplied by your finishing place's average buy-in. So, I played more $50 games this month than anything which means I would get my finish spot times $50 as a bonus. I missed 5th by less than 1k points (don't know how little that is, but probably could've taken as little as 30 games) and finished in 8th instead.
The goal for this month is just to relax and not worry about when this will turn around. I'm super-rolled to play these and have enough in my bank account to cover the move/bills/rent/food/burritos/pizza parties/monkey bars. Oh, I just got my new matrox dualhead2go system set up so my monitors work perfectly with my laptop now! I know that might not seem like a big deal, but I'm excited.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
- The breaking point
I'm not sure what qualifies as the point where I kind of flip out after weeks of run bad. My table selection is light years beyond what it was 3 weeks ago, end game shove ranges have improved dramatically (sure, still shoving wide, but doesn't have to be any two 100% - especially at the bubbles with low blinds), and I can snag sharkscope notes on a player faster than I've ever done before. Yet, still I lose. Well, more like break even again and again and again. It's been just about 4000 games and I'm even if rakeback is included.
Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.
70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.
I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.
Quick rundown:
- 1st 1k games just ran like pure crap. No major adjustments.
- 2nd 1k games continued to run pretty awful, but learned a great deal about table selection and color coding my opponents to make sure I was selecting only the best games.
- 3rd 1k games tried to adjust my bvb/bubble/heads-up shoves after Yardle pointed out that my bvb's and hu play might be costing me some money (he was right, I think...I watched him play some and ran about 800 hands to make sure my math was improving. Still, though, no results to back any of it up). I dropped limits and # of tables played at a time, too.
- 4th 1k games is reaching the point of breaking stuff. I bought a new mouse (you can guess why) and it's fantastic. *side note* if you're thinking of getting one of the apple "magic mouses" I'd say it's a good investment. I realize the fact that you absolutely can run this bad while playing good enough to make 2-3 dollars per game, but it's still incredibly frustrating.
70/30s are genuinely not 70/30s anymore. I'm not even kidding when I say I haven't had an 80/20 (my 55 or whatever against opponents' JJ, etc.) suckout for 4 or 5 playing days. I realize this sounds like a lame bad beat saga fraught with hyperbole, but without a doubt, I am running worse than I ever have in my life. Yes, every downswing is the "worst" downswing, but this one is very different. I've packed about 4k games into 2-3 weeks and still no turn around. I've made adjustments that are absolutely +EV fixes and still no turn around (all the while, doing my best not to perform a complete overhaul of my shoves...aggression won money in the past and it will do so again). I've dropped limits and tables. Still nothing.
I read an interview of the owner of Zappos.com today where he was talking about the difference between poker and gambling. Using a quarter as an example, he said (and I'm paraphrasing) that the biggest difference is that a skill edge in poker can take the heads side of the coin and force it to come up 2 out of 3 flips. In the short term, I will take heads every time, but can still lose heavily due to the luck involved. However, in the long term I will obviously win. The difference being with blackjack, craps or roulette is that you are forced to bet on the tails side and will eventually lose. While comforting in theory, it still doesn't make you feel all warm and cozy inside when you're running bad.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
- My head is broken
Started legitimately celebrating only being down $500 today. Genuine excitement. So dumb.
edit: only down $150 on the day by the end of it. I'm seriously giddy. Haven't had a real winning day in almost 2 weeks (outside of 1 day) and this feels amazing. Not even kidding.
edit: only down $150 on the day by the end of it. I'm seriously giddy. Haven't had a real winning day in almost 2 weeks (outside of 1 day) and this feels amazing. Not even kidding.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
- Not easy the 2nd time around either
The first week of the month I made money. Since the 7th I have lost money. It has sucked.
I've experienced this type of variance before, but it was a few months ago while I was still learning the 6-max supers. I'm really not too concerned bankroll-wise, I just hate the loss of confidence. For about the first 8-9 days of the swing it really wasn't all that bad. Running hands/ranges/bubbles was an absolute necessity and I genuinely feel like I've improved because of it. Lots of other regs are experiencing similar swings at the same time, which is somewhat reassuring.
The good things that have come from this include: more attention to heads-up, early game blind-vs-blind shoves, and late game bubble play. The bad things: not knowing how all the "fixes" will actually play out in the long run. I can't put it out of my mind that for about 5k games I was running above average in certain late-game spots (things like shoving too wide from the button on a bubble at a low-ish blind level) and now it's readjusting somewhat (note: I have studied this spot over and over now and am 100% positive this has improved). I also can't discount the fact that my overall aggression in these games definitely allowed me to make as much as I have in just a few months.
No one likes a good bad beat story so I'll spare any major details. However, this last session - and the 3 before it - looked like things were going to turn a little bit and I could possibly break-even for the day. Then 7 games later (and 3 70/30s, 3 80/20s, and 1 1-outer) I was still down. That's gotta be the suckiest part. Constantly thinking it's turning around or something's about to readjust the way the math says it must, but doesn't.
In other news, I'm moving into a new place at the end of June (haven't found it yet) with an old buddy from Kids from Wisconsin and yardle. Should mean more practicing without a mute! Score.
I've experienced this type of variance before, but it was a few months ago while I was still learning the 6-max supers. I'm really not too concerned bankroll-wise, I just hate the loss of confidence. For about the first 8-9 days of the swing it really wasn't all that bad. Running hands/ranges/bubbles was an absolute necessity and I genuinely feel like I've improved because of it. Lots of other regs are experiencing similar swings at the same time, which is somewhat reassuring.
The good things that have come from this include: more attention to heads-up, early game blind-vs-blind shoves, and late game bubble play. The bad things: not knowing how all the "fixes" will actually play out in the long run. I can't put it out of my mind that for about 5k games I was running above average in certain late-game spots (things like shoving too wide from the button on a bubble at a low-ish blind level) and now it's readjusting somewhat (note: I have studied this spot over and over now and am 100% positive this has improved). I also can't discount the fact that my overall aggression in these games definitely allowed me to make as much as I have in just a few months.
No one likes a good bad beat story so I'll spare any major details. However, this last session - and the 3 before it - looked like things were going to turn a little bit and I could possibly break-even for the day. Then 7 games later (and 3 70/30s, 3 80/20s, and 1 1-outer) I was still down. That's gotta be the suckiest part. Constantly thinking it's turning around or something's about to readjust the way the math says it must, but doesn't.
In other news, I'm moving into a new place at the end of June (haven't found it yet) with an old buddy from Kids from Wisconsin and yardle. Should mean more practicing without a mute! Score.
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